国际油气投资环境潜力演化和差异变动趋势研究

Study on the Evolution of the Potentials and the Changing Trend of the Differences in the Potentials Relating to Oil and Gas Investment Environment

文章基于超效率数据包络分析（SE-DEA）理论构建了油气投资环境潜力测度模型，选取我国主要投资地区中东、南美和非洲的28个主要油气产国为研究对象，测度了2003～2012年油气投资环境潜力，使用Theil指数构建了潜力差异测度模型，研究了地区内和地区间的潜力差异变动趋势。研究结果表明：2003～2012年油气投资环境潜力呈现快速增长后持续下滑态势，中东地区整体潜力明显高于南美和非洲地区，南美地区在短暂下滑后出现强劲复苏势头，潜力分布仍不均衡，潜力差异以地区内部差异为主，地区内部差异以非洲地区最为明显，地区间差异所占比重不大。

The paper establishes a model based on the super-efficiency DEA theory to evaluate the potentials of oil and gas investment environment. The paper singles out twenty-eight major oil and gas producing countries in the Middle East,South America and Africa where China makes significant investments,and evaluates oil and gas investment environment potentials of those countries from 2003 to 2012. The paper establishes a model based on Theil index to measure the changing trend of different potentials within a region and across regions. The results show that during 2003 ~ 2012,oil and gas investment environment potentials declined continuously following a rapid increase. The potential in the Middle East is much higher than in South America and Africa,and the potential recovers strongly in South America after a transient decline. The distribution of potentials is not even. Differences of potentials mainly exist within a region with Africa registering the most obvious internal differences. Differences across regions are insignificant.