基于WCVaR的易逝品生产-分销网络优化策略

Optimal strategy for production-distribution network of perishable products based on WCVaR

针对需求信息概率分布部分已知下的易逝品生产-分销网络,引入最坏条件风险值(WCVaR)对易逝品的生产-分销网络进行风险度量。在考虑产品生产、物流量分配、运输路径选择等因素对生产成本、运输成本、存储成本以及缺货损失影响的基础上,建立满足一定服务水平下最坏情景网络风险值最小的优化模型,并通过最小化生产-分销网络的尾部风险损失实现易逝品生产-分销网络最佳优化策略。模型数值仿真结果表明:相比稳健优化,WCVaR方法不仅能处理更具波动的不确定,而且具有更优的稳定性;当需求变量为混合分布时,WCVaR优化模型可较好解决生产-分销网络不确定优化问题。

According to partially known probability distribution of demand information on the production-distribution network of perishable products, WCVaR （ Worst-Case Conditional Value-at-Risk） was introduced to measure the risk. On the basis of considering the effect of factors, such as production, logistics distribution, transportation path etc, on production cost, transportation cost, storage cost and loss of stockout, an optimization model with minimum WCVaR at certain service level was proposed. And then the best optimization strategy was realized by minimizing tail risk loss of production-distribution network. The numerical simulation results show that the WCVaR method can handle the uncertainty with more volatility and has more excellent stability, compared with the robust optimization method. When the demand obeys mixed distribution, the optimization problem of production-distribution network with uncertainty can be well solved with WCVaR optimization model.