基于系统动力学的中国石油供需预测分析

Forecast and Analysis of China Oil Supply and Demand Based on System Dynamics

石油作为经济社会重要的战略物资，对国家安全与国民经济发展具有举足轻重的影响。石油需求的变化影响着我国相关石油政策的制定，因此有必要对石油需求进行预测。本文基于系统学力学理论，综合考虑经济、环境、入口、交通、技术等因素，构建了可持续发展的中国石油供需预测模型。结果表明，模型的预测效果良好，1990-2012年间，石油消费量年平均误差仅为3．71％，石油产量年平均误差仅为1．52％，可用于未来我国石油供需的预测。对2013-2030年的预测结果表明，石油消费量将会以年均3％的速度增长，石油生产量将会以年均1％的速度增长，石油对外依存度在2030年将达到73．2％；石油消费需求的强劲增长主要来自于交通运输及工业对石油的需求。本文就此提出了调整产业结构、发展交通新能源的政策建议。

The oil is an important material resources of economic and social.It is an important strategic supplies relating to the national economy and national defense safety.The trend of oil demand would influence our oil policies. And it is of great use topredict the oil demand in the future.Based onSystem Dynamicstheory, this article considersmany factors such as economic, environment, population, transportation, technology and so on, and builds a sustainableoil supply and demand model.Results show that, this model has good forecast effect.From 1990 to 2012, annual average relative error of oil consumption is 3.71%, and annual average relative error of oil production is 1.52%.Through forecast during the period between 2013 and 2030, the results showthat oil consumptionwill grow by an average of 23% a year, and oil production will grow by an average of 1% a year.China＇s dependence on foreign oil will be 73.2% in 2030.The strong growth of oil consumption is mainly because the demand for oil from transportation and industry. Finally, this articleraised some policy recommendations to adjust the industrial structure and develop new energy based transportation.