统计地震学在矿山动力灾害预测中的应用

Application of statistical seismology in prediction of mine dynamic disaster

许多观测资料表明矿山微震事件同天然地震事件都服从古登堡—里克特关系。矿山动力灾害事件实际上是矿山岩体系统的一种自我调整,运用统计地震学研究微震事件集的演化规律,以揭示岩体所处的稳定性阶段,从而对危险性岩体动力灾害事件做出预测。结合玲南金矿的微震监测数据,运用古登堡—里克特关系研究该矿山连续三个月的b值变化趋势、微震事件震级重现周期和对应事件的发生概率。结果表明,b值基本能反映当月的矿山系统稳定性情况,并能给出相应震级事件重现周期和发生概率。

A lot of observation data show Gutenberg-Richter law can fit mine micro-seismic events like nature earthquake.In fact mine dynamic disasters is a kind of self-adjustment to mining rock mass system,which could be predicted with seismic events group researched by statistical seismology to reveal stage of stability of rock mass.In this paper the b value tendency,seismic events mean recurrence days and magnitude probability in Lingnan gold mine in three months is studied by Gutenberg-Richter law.The results show that the b value can basically response to conditions of mine system stability in a month,and seismic events mean recurrence days and magnitude probability can be given.