基于风险管理理论的莫高窟监测预警体系构建与预防性保护探索

Construction of a Monitoring and Precaution System and Exploration of Preventive Conservation at the Mogao Grottoes Based on Risk Management Theory

文化遗产地受到多种风险因素的影响和威胁。威胁遗产长久保存的许多病害往往是多种风险因素综合作用的结果。20世纪90年代,文化遗产风险管理理论开始应用于文化遗产抵御各类自然灾害的保护和研究中。应用文化遗产风险理论可明确文化遗产所面临的全部风险,评估每项风险的严重程度,找出并制定风险缓解策略。本文全面回顾莫高窟的保护历史,基于文化遗产风险管理理论,指出构建风险监测预警体系的目的在于实现文化遗产地变化可监测、风险可预报、险情可预控、保护可提前的预防性保护管理目标;论述了莫高窟风险监测体系的框架和构建内容;指出风险清单的科学厘定、风险阈值的研究、风险管理与决策支持系统的研发等内容风险监测预警体系构建急需解决和重点开展研究的内容。而在风险监测预警体系指引下,开展风险防范与控制技术研究,是减缓或降低各类风险对遗址带来的危害,实现莫高窟的预防性保护的必由之路。

Cultural heritage sites throughout China have been affected and threatened by a lot of risk factors, most of which have combined to result in many kinds of deterioration that threaten the permanent Perdervation of these sites. Since the 1990s, cultural heritage risk management theory has been applied to the conservation research of cultural heritage against natural disasters. The theory can be used to identify all the risks effecting cultural heritage maintenance, assess the severity of each risk, and propose appropriate risk mitigation strategies. Based on this risk management theory, this paper first reviews the conservation history of the Mogao Grottoes, then points out that the risk monitoring and precaution system should be built to achieve various conservation and management goals, including monitoring changes at cultural heritage sites, forecasting risks, pre-controlling emergency dangers and conserving in advance, and then discusses how to build a risk monitoring and precaution system at the grottoes and what should be done or resolved first. The guidance of the risk monitoring and precaution system indicates that the only way to realize preventive conservation of the Mogao Grottoes is to carry out research on risk precaution and mitigate damages caused by various risk factors.