基于DSGE模型的我国核心通货膨胀研究

The Research of Core Inflation in China Based on DSGE Model

文章以新凯恩斯粘性价格理论为基础,采用DSGE模型,为我国核心通货膨胀指数的核算构建了微观基础,并因此获得了各部门价格指数的最优权重。分析认为:最优的权重受部门价格粘性、随机冲击以及部门产出缺口的价格弹性等因素的影响而变化,随着部门的价格粘性的增加而增加,且随着随机冲击方差的减少而增加,又随着部门产出缺口的价格弹性的增加而增加。与CPI指数相比,由最优权重所核算出来的核心通货膨胀指数更加的平滑稳定,没有剧烈的波动,基本上反映了CPI指数的核心趋势。并且文章的研究结论与侯成琪等(2011)的研究也相一致。因此,文章建议其可以作为我国货币政策制定与实施的具有福利标准的参考锚的。

Based on the price stickiness of the New Keynesian Economics, the paper uses a DSGE model to build up the microeconomic foundations for the core inflation index in China, so that we obtain the optimal weight of every sector of price index. It is found that the optimal weight is influenced by some factors, such as price stickiness of sector, random shocks and the price elasticity of sector output gaps so on. The optimal weight will increase with growth of the price stickiness of the sector, with decrease of the variance of the random shock, and with growth of the price elasticity of output gap of the sector. Compared with the CPI index, the core inflation index made by the optimal weights is more smooth and stable, without drastic fluctuations, basically reflects the core trend of CPI index. The conclusion of the paper is consistent with the conclusion of Hou Chengqi（2011）. Therefore, the paper suggests that the core inflation index made by the optimal weight may be anchor with welfare reference for the formulation and implementation of China/s monetary policy.