基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的云南花卉物流需求预测

Demand Forecasting of Floral Logistics in Yunnan Based on GM(1,1)

首先对云南花卉物流的现状进行分析,在此基础上以云南花卉的总产值和鲜切花的总产量为切入点,应用灰色GM(1,1)模型对云南省未来五年花卉的总产值和鲜切花的总产量进行预测,预测结果表明:除残差合格检验项的花卉总产值平均相对误差精度为三级外,残差合格检验项的花卉总产量平均相对误差及关联度合格检验和均方差比值合格检验项的精度均为一级标准,可见预测模型检验精度高,可用于对云南花卉的总产量和鲜切花总产量进行预测。预测结果表明未来五年云南花卉对物流的需求将持续增长,现有物流特别是冷链物流要加快发展步伐,才能满足日益扩大的需求。

In this paper, we first analyzed the current status of the floral logistics in Yunnan, and on such basis, with the gross floral production and the gross production of the fresh cut flowers in Yunnan as the starting point, used the GM（1,1） to forecast the gross production of the two for the next five yearn for the province, the result of which demonstrated the accuracy of the forecasting model.