基于VAR模型的宁波港口物流与经济增长关系的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Relationship between Port Logistics and Economic Growth of Ningbo Based on VAR Model

基于宁波市1990-2013年统计数据,利用向量自回归模型、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应分析了宁波经济增长与港口物流的互动关系。结果表明,港口物流的两个衡量指标—港口吞吐量与集装箱吞吐量之间存在双向因果关系;两个指标与经济增长之间存在单向因果关系,集装箱吞吐量对经济增长的贡献率更加明显。

In this paper, based on the statistical data of Ningbo for the years between 1990 and 2013, we used the vector auto-regression model, Granger causality check and pulse response analysis to study the interaction between the economic growth and port logistics of the city and found that there existed a hi-way causality between port throughput and container throughput and that these two indexes were unilaterally causal to economic growth while the contribution of container throughput was more pronounced.