福建省农业综合生产能力评价与动态分析

Evaluation and dynamic analysis on agricultural comprehensive production capacity in Fujian Province

依据农业综合生产能力的内涵,设置了评价指标体系,并采用灰色关联法确定了各指标权重,从而构建了福建省农业综合生产能力评价模型。运用该模型,对福建省1978-2011年的农业综合生产能力进行定量分析。结果表明,农业综合生产能力出现了上升(1978-1998年)、下降(1999-2006年)、再上升(2007-2011年)等3个阶段。随后,从农村改革、城镇化发展等角度,对其阶段性特征的形成原因进行分析,从进一步波动指数分析可知,农业综合生产能力在第一阶段波动剧烈;在第二和第三阶段波动仍较大,并据此提出了相关政策建议。

The model of evaluating the agricultural comprehensive production capacity in Fujian Province has been built with the indicators system set up according to the connotation of the agricultural comprehensive production capacity and with the weight of each indicator determined with the grey correlation method. Based on the model,the agricultural comprehensive production capacities are analyzed quantitatively in Fujian Province from 1978 to 2011. The results show that the agricultural comprehensive production capacity appeared in a curve through three stages,rising from 1978 to 1998,falling from 1999 to 2006,rising again from 2007 to 2011.Meanwhile,from the perspectives of rural reform and urbanization,the causes of those stages are analyzed. According to further fluctuation index analysis,the agricultural comprehensive production capacity fluctuated extremely greatly at the first stage,and fluctuated greatly at the second and third stages. The relevant policy as the countermeasures are proposed.