摘要
利用外汇储备调整增加额、贸易顺差额、FDI、外债以及隐藏其中的热钱,结合分布滞后模型对热钱的月度流入规模进行了估算,采用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验等方法对影响热钱流入的因素进行了实证分析。结果表明,热钱的流入规模随着经济形势的变化而变化,且资本市场收益率是影响热钱流入的主要因素;利率和房地产市场对热钱的影响相对较小。最后从法律、体系建设和制度建设等方面提出了相应的对策建议。
Based on the adjusted increase of foreign exchange reserves,the trade surplus,FDI and the foreign debt,the distributed lag model is applied to calculate the monthly inflow scale of hot money. Meanwhile,the co- integration analysis and Granger causality test are conducted to measure the affecting factors. It is concluded that the size changes with the economic situation and the capital market is the most important factor and the effects of the interest rates and real estate are relatively minor. The suggestions are proposed in terms of the law,system and regulations.
出处
《福建农林大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
2015年第1期66-72,共7页
Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
福建省科技厅软科学项目(2014R0013)
福建省教育厅A类人文社科研究项目(JA12141S)
关键词
热钱
汇率
利率
外汇储备
hot money
exchange rate
interest rates
foreign exchange reserves
