地级历史文化名城的城市空间增长动力因素研究

The Research on Power Factors of City Space Growth for Prefecture Historical and Cultural Cities

以2006-2012年38座地级历史文化名城的相关统计数据为样本,通过建立城市空间增长概念模型和对数线性回归模型,分析历史文化名城城市空间增长动力因素之间的内在关系。研究表明,经济和交通对历史文化名城城市空间增长的影响作用较大,非农业人口和教育一定程度上也能推动城市空间增长,人口密度的变化同城市空间增长未呈现出显性关系。为此,建议合理处理好老城区、历史街区与新城的发展关系,推动历史风貌区的保护与发展,运用科学规划处理好老城区、历史街区保护与城市空间增长的矛盾。

Based on statistical data of thirty-eight prefecture historical and cultural cities from year 2006 to 2012 and by setting up the conceptual model and logarithm linear regression model, the inter-relationship between power factors and city spatial growth for historical and cultural cities is analysed. The research results show that, the economy and transportation have a great influence on the dty spatial growth for historical and cultural riles. In addition, the nonagricultural population and education can also push forward the city spatial gowth at a certain extent, population density changes with the growth of urban space dominance relations are not showing. Finally, it is suggest~ to deal with the relationship between old city. historic district and new city of Mstorical and cultural cities,promoting the protection and development of historical contradictiorts style area. using scientific planning to deal with the old city, historic district protection and urban spatial growth.