2013年上海夏季高温热浪超额死亡风险评估

Heat wave-related excess mortality assessment in Shanghai,in summer 2013

目的分析2013年上海高温热浪特征,定量评估其对人群造成的超额死亡风险,为制定疾病预防控制措施提供必要的定量数据支撑。方法采用2003—2013年上海夏季日气温数据,及文献报道的上海气温对死亡的热效应暴露-反应关系系数,计算夏季每日热相关死亡数,以每年夏季热相关超额死亡数及每年夏季热浪相关超额死亡数作为最终的健康风险评估指标。通过比较2013年结果与2003—2012年各年的结果,分析2013年上海夏季高温热浪相关的超额死亡风险的程度。结果 2013年夏季上海高温日数达到44 d,热浪总持续天数达到38 d,明显高于2003—2012年各年。2013年上海夏季热相关总超额死亡人数为1 889人/年,是2003—2012年各年热相关超额死亡数平均值的2.2倍;2013年热浪相关的超额死亡人数为1 347人/年,占总超额死亡人数的71.3%,是过去10年热浪相关超额死亡数平均值的3.9倍。结论 2013年夏季上海发生的高温热浪强度大,持续时间长,相关超额死亡风险远高于2003—2012年各年平均值,相关的人群超额死亡风险极高,今后需采取措施控制热浪造成的人群健康风险。

Objective Based on the analysis of the relationship between the Shanghai heat wave in 2013 and local mortality data, quantitative evaluation of the excess mortality risk was conducted, which could provide the quantified information for disease control and prevention. Methods The daily heat-related morality was calculated by using the daily maximum and average temperature data during 2003-2013 summer clays and the heat effects of temperature-mortality coefficient in Shanghai recorded in previous study. The annual heat-related excess mortality in summer and the annual excess mortality of heat wave period were also calculated and considered as the two targets of health risk assessment. Compared these results in 2013 to 2003-2012, the health risk level caused by Shanghai heat wave in 2013 was identified. Result There were 44 hot days during 2013 summer in Shanghai, especially 38 heat wave days in total, which was significantly beyond each year during 2003-2012.The total excess mortality of Shanghai in 2013 summer was 1 889 per year, which was 2.2 times of that in 2003-2012. The excess mortality caused by heat wave was 1 347 per year, which was 71.3% of the total excess mortality and 3.9 times of the average excess mortality during heat waves in the past decade. Conclusion Heat waves happened in 2013 summer in Shanghai are of high intensity, long duration and cause much higher excess mortality risk than the average mortality risk value during 2003-2012, which indicate the necessity to take public health protection to control the heat-related health risk in the future.