摘要
气候变化和土地利用变化对流域水循环和水资源的影响已经引起社会的广泛关注。为探究气候和土地利用／覆盖变化对水资源的影响．选取塔里木河流域中游典型生态脆弱区渭干河一库车河三角洲绿洲为研究区域．首先以1998年和2011年的TM影像数据为基础。分析了研究区土地利用／覆盖的时空变化特征．并结合该绿洲历史水资源的利用状况和气候状况分析了气候和土地利用变化对水资源的影响。其次．分析了该绿洲的水资源变化特征。结果表明，1972～2012年渭一库绿洲年平均温度的变化呈上升趋势．温度最高增加了0．9℃／（6年）；年降水量总的变化呈减少趋势，降水量最高减少了21mm／（6年）；年蒸发量总体呈减少趋势．蒸发量最高减少了305mm／（6年）;各种土地利用／覆盖类型在1998～2011年都发生了较大变化，其中林地的缩减最大，其次为沙地，而增加最大的是耕地，其次为其他用地（山地、裸地等）和盐碱地。绿洲耗水量增加．并且地下水位呈现急剧下降趋势。总之，该绿洲土地利用／覆盖的变化使其需水结构在向耗水的方向变化，因此，在目前气候变化的大环境下，改善土地利用方式对提高渭干河流域水资源的利用效率具有重要意义。
Land-use and climate change can affect basin hydrology cycle and water resources which has caused widespread concern in society. The changes of climate and land use/cover would lead to the structure of water resource use. In order to analyze the interaction between climate, land use/cover and water resource assignment, the deha oasis of Weigan river-Kuqa river, a typical oasis on middle reaches of Tarim Basin was chosen as the study area. Based on TM data in 1998 and 2011 in this area, the land-use changes in 14 years were analyzed using ENVI 4.8. The changes of water resource use and re- quirement structure were analyzed based on the water resource supply and industrial structure. The characteristics of water re- sources were analyzed. The results showed that the annual average temperature in the area had a increasing trend from 1972- 2012, with the increasing slope of 0.9 ~C/6a at best. The warming was obvious in the Wei-Ku oasis. The annual precipita- tion showed an decreasing trend, with the decreasing slope of 21 mm/6a at best. There were six obvious fluctuated phases for precipitation variation including less-more-more-less-less-less. The annual evaporation showed an decreasing trend, with the decreasing slope of 305 mm/6a at best. There were six obvious fluctuated phases for evaporation variation including more-less-less-more-more-less. On the other hand, most land use/cover changed greatly from 1998 to 2011.The largest one was forestland whose area had reduced, and the second one was sandy land and grassland. The largest one is farmland whose area has increased, and the second one is others（unused land） and saline and alkaline land. The changes in land use let to increase of the water requirement little by little. Water consumption was increased in oasis. Groundwater level showed a sharp downward trend. Under the condition, it was important to improve the land use method for the regional water resource assignment and industrial adjust to oasis area.
出处
《湖北农业科学》
北大核心
2014年第23期5716-5723,共8页
Hubei Agricultural Sciences
基金
新疆自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(2012211B04)
