2014年之后的俄罗斯

Russia after 2014

2014年,俄罗斯的内外环境都发生了重大变化。乌克兰危机以及西方的制裁,成了俄罗斯外部环境的主要背景;能源价格下跌、卢布危机则对俄罗斯的内部环境带来了相当影响。乌克兰危机是关键。这场危机所引发的,不仅仅是一场国家间、地区间的冲突,而且,也事关当今世界事务中一系列关键性问题的重新认知。其中所涉及的观念性问题,包括如何来重新看待诸如文明冲突、地缘政治、国内与国外事务中的合法性、区域进程与大国关系、和平时期的军事联盟、大国间的缓冲地区,乃至国际权力转移进程的长期态势等等问题。这些问题中的每一个,都足以搅动今后相当长时间的国际变局和各个层面的纷争。从危机过程的视角来看,乌克兰危机在国际关系史上所具有的特殊地位在于,从2008年开始的国际金融危机一直到2014年乌克兰危机所发生的这一时段,事实上,意味着全球国际关系已经开始进入冷战后时期的"第二个阶段"。乌克兰事件,乃是伴随整个国际权力转移的关键时段、在关键的国际角色之间发生的一场关键性的危机。

2014 witnessed great changes in Russia’s internal and external environments. Internationally, there were Ukraine crisis and Western sanctions while domestically decreasing prices of energy and ruble crisis were important factors, among which Ukraine crisis is a key one. What Ukraine crisis has caused is not only conflicts among states or regions, but also re-cognition regarding a series of critical issues of current world affairs, including conceptual issues such as the clash of civilizations, geopolitics, the legitimacy of domestic and foreign affairs, regional processes and great power relations, military alliances during peacetime, the buffer area among great powers, and even long-term trend of international power shifts. Each of these issues is sufficient to stir changes in international situation for quite a long time and international disputes at all levels.From the perspective of the crisis, the special status of the Ukrainian crisis in the international history is that it indicates global relations has entered ＂the second phase＂ of the post-Cold War era since the international financial crisis in 2008.The Ukraine event is a critical crisis among key international roles during the critical period of international power shifts.