中国与东盟农产品产业内贸易的影响因素研究

Factors that Influence Intra-industry Trade of Agricultural Products between China and ASEAN

基于2004-2012年的细分产业层面面板数据,首先运用AE法和GL指数对中国与东盟农产品产业内贸易水平进行分解及测度,然后在细分的农产品产业层面上构建面板数据模型,依次分析了双边农产品产业内贸易总水平、水平型产业内贸易水平、垂直型产业内贸易水平的影响因素。结果表明,影响中国与东盟农产品水平型产业内贸易水平的因素主要有人均收入水平差异、市场规模大小、美国次贷危机、农产品关税税率差异和农产品贸易不平衡程度;影响中国与东盟农产品垂直型产业内贸易水平的因素主要有市场规模大小、东盟国家贸易开放度、东盟国家对中国的外商直接投资和农产品贸易不平衡程度。

Based on data of 2004-2012, this paper first applies AE method and GL index to decompose and calculate the intra-industry trade level of agricultural products between China and ASEAN countries, and then constructs panel data models at the divided industry levels, so as to analyze factors which affect the overall level of bilateral intra-industry trade, the level of horizontal intra-industry trade, and the level of vertical intra-industry trade on agricultural products respectively. The results indicate that the main factors that influence the horizontal intra-industry trade level of agricultural products between China and ASEAN countries include differences in per capita incomes, market scale, American sub- prime crisis, differences in tariff rates and imbalance of trade on agricultural products, while the main factors that influence the vertical intra-industry trade level of agricultural products between China and ASEAN countries include market scale, trade openness of ASEAN countries, ASEAN countries＇ direct investment into China and imbalance of trade on a- gricuhural products.