基于生态视角的城镇化策略实证研究

Empirical Study on Urbanization Strategies Based on Ecology

城镇化是新一届政府的重大发展战略，以湖北省的历史数据为例，运用能值一生态足迹模型分剐计算2001～2010年湖北省的生态足迹与生态承载力，通过计算生态盈余的变化轨迹。揭示湖北省生态发展变化趋势。通过湖北省生态盈余与城镇化、三次产业产值之间的线性回归分析，分别揭示了城镇化和三次产业发展对湖北省生态盈余的影响．提出了湖北省城镇化和产业发展的政策建议．即坚持走生态型城镇化道路、坚持发展生态农业、继续走新型工业化之路和大力发展生态旅游业。

Urbanization is Chinese new strategy. With Emergy-Ecological Footprint Model, this article calculates Hubei Province ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity between 2001 and 2010. And then, the paper reveals the effects of Hubei Province urbanization and industries on their ecological by linear regression analysis. Finally, it makes policy recommendations in urbanization and industrial development in Hubei.