气候变暖背景下长治灾害天气的演变分析

Changzhi under the background of climate warming the evolution of the disaster weather analysis

应用1971年-2010年长治11个气象观测站年平均气温资料，通过对其年际变化特征分析，得出了年平均气温的上升速率为0．3℃，10a。利用年代、年、季及平均气温与干旱事件、寒潮、高温日数的趋势演变对比分析。得出：气候变暖是灾害天气发生异变的主要原因之一。随着年代平均气温的升高，干旱事件次数增加；随年际温度趋势的上升，寒潮次数减少；秋季气温的升高对应寒潮开始期推后；春季气温的升高对应寒潮结束期提前；高温日数与夏季年代气温的变化趋势一致，从80年代起，随着年代气温的升高，高温日数明显增多。

the application of changzhi 11 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2010 the average annual temperature data, analyzing its inter-annual features, it is concluded that the climate warming, the existence of the fact that increased rate of annual average temperature of 0.3℃ / 10 a. Use of year, season and s average temperature and drought event, cold wave, the trend of high temperature days evolution analysis. Concluded that climate warming is a variation of the main causes of the disaster weather. With the increase of s average temperature, drought event increase; As the rise of the interannual trend of temperature, cold wave less; Autumn temperatures corresponding to cold start later; Spring temperatures corresponding to the cold end of the period in advance; High temperature days and summer s temperature changing trend is consistent, since the 80 s, with the s temperatures rise, high temperature days increased significantly.