省级以下现代天气业务集约化发展研究

Studies of the intensive development of modern weather business in the department lower than the provincial level

在梳理中国气象局现代气象业务发展，特别是现代天气业务发展思路及成效基础上，结合公共气象服务面临的新形势和新需求，分析省级以下现代天气业务集约化发展面临的新问题，提出优化省市县三级的重点业务分工、改进预报预警技术和业务流程、完善相关业务标准、创新基层一体化业务服务方式、进而推进核心气象业务集约化发展的建议。主要建议：①实施预报核心上移、服务重心下沉战略，逐步建立适应气象服务体制改革要求的业务布局。强化省级大数据（基础数据、预报服务产品库及综合一体化平台等）环境部署、精准化天气预报技术路线及流程的革新、灾害性天气预警技术把关等业务核心地位；强化市级短期精细化要素预报订正和气象服务社会化的组织与协调；强化县级基层气象防灾减灾的社会化组织和协调、灾害性天气及气象灾害风险预警职能。②创新基层海量数值天气预报（NWP）产品集成应用方式，关注气象要素格点、情景预报技术发展，探索综合业务平台升级以及预报产品无缝隙、网格化、精细化制作技术；③进一步理清灾害性天气预报预警业务的上下级分工，创新管理模式，完善集约化业务平台和流程，整合专业化的信息发布平台和流程。④完善产品格式、标准和方法，推进业务质量检验评估体系建设。⑤强化多方式业务培训，提升业务科技创新能力；推进县级监测、预报和服务业务的一体化，全面提升县级精细化预报、灾害性天气及气象灾害预警服务能力。

Based on the development of modern meteorological business of China Meteorological Administration, especially on the development and effectiveness of modern weather business , combined with new situation and requires facing in the public meteorological service, the new problems facing in the intensive development of modern weather business in the department lower than the provincial level are analyzed , and suggestions are proposed about the key business divisions in provincial, city and county departments, the improvements in the forecast and warning technique and business processes , the improvements in related business standard , the model of the integration of business service and thus the promotion of the intensive development of central meteorological business . The suggestions are as follows： （ 1 ） The strategy of the forecast core up and service gravity down is carried out in order to make the arrangement of meeting the requirements of meteorological service system reform. The provincial department should intensify the business core status of the big data （ base platform ） environment, the reformation of technical routine data, database of service products and the integrated of precise weather forecast , and the check on the disastrous weather warning technique. The organization and coordination should be intensified about the short-term refined forecast correction and socialization of meteorological service in city department and the socialization of disaster prevention and mitigation in county department. Besides , the county department should strengthen the job functions of the warning of disaster weather and risk. （ 2 ） The mass numerical weather prediction （ NWP ） data should be used innovatively. The attention should be paid to the development of grid and scene forecast techniques , the upgrade of the integrated business platform and the technique of seamless, messing and refined forecast. （ 3 ） The division labor of the superior and the subordinate about the disaster weather forecast should be further clarified , and the intensification of business platform and processes should be improved. （ 4 ） The format and standard of products should be improved to promote the system conduction of quality assessment. （ 5 ） The business training of many aspe cts should be organized to promote the ability of technology innovation. Besides, the county department should promote the process of the integration of observation , forecast and service , and consequently improve the service ability of refined forecast, disastrous weather and disaster waning.