基于分布式水文模型的中小河流洪水预报技术

Flood Forecasting for Small- and Medium-sized Rivers Based on Distributed Hydrological Modeling

中小河流大多位于资料短缺的山丘区,洪水具有突发性强、汇流时间快、预见期短以及分布广的特点。中小河流洪水预报首要目的和任务是预警预报,预报方式应以自动预报为主,以实现及时预警,最大程度地避免人员伤亡,减轻灾害损失。本文分析了中小河流洪水预报的特点与难点,提出了中小河流洪水预报的思路及实用预报模型与方法,开展了基于分布式水文模型的中小河流洪水预报技术在新安江上游屯溪流域预警预报中的应用研究,以期为当前所开展的全国中小河流洪水预警预报系统建设提供参考。研究表明:分布式水文模型是资料短缺地区中小河流洪水预报的有效方法,基于分布式水文模型的洪水预报技术能够满足中小河流洪水自动预警预报的生产需要。

Flash floods in small- and medium-sized rivers mostly located in ungauged or data-shortage mountainous areas in China are featured by sudden happening, less concentration time, short forecasting lead-time and wide distribution. The primary purpose and task of flash flood forecasting for small- and medium-sized rivers is for early warning, therefore priority should be given to automatic forecasting, with an aim to realizing timely early warning to avoid loss of life and to reduce disaster losses. This paper analyzed the characteristics and difficulties of small- and medium-sized rivers flood forecasting, put forward the thinking of small- and medium-sized rivers flood forecast- ing as well as practical forecasting models and methods. A flash flood forecasting approach based on distributed hydrological model was proposed in this study and applied in flood forecasting and early warning in Tunxi river basin on the upstream of the Xin＇anjiang River, hoping to provide a research reference for the on-going national project of development of flash flood forecasting and early warning system. The research shows that the distributed hydrological modeling is an effective way to flood forecasting for small and medium-sized Rivers with shortage of data, and the flood forecasting technology based on distributed hydrological model can meet the practical requirements of automatic flood forecasting and early warning for small- and medium-sized rivers.