资源价格波动、资源依赖与经济增长

Price Volatility of Resources,Resource Dependence and Economic Growth

传统"资源诅咒"问题的研究没有考虑资源价格波动的影响。基于省际面板数据建立回归模型,对资源价格约束下的"资源诅咒"问题重新进行了探讨,结果表明,资源价格波动确实是"资源诅咒"研究的重要影响因素。在考虑资源价格波动后,资源依赖度和经济增长在理论上存在正"U"型关系。但在过去20年中,中国各省处于正"U"型曲线的左边,资源依赖度和经济增长表现出单一的负相关关系。还对资源价格约束下"资源诅咒"的各种传导机制进行了考察,发现人力资本投入和物质资本投资是最主要的传导机制。基于以上研究结论,提出了相应的政策建议。

The traditional researches on resource curse have ignored the effects of price volatility of resources. Based on panel data of provinces, we establish a regression model and re-examine resource curse hypothesis with considering resource price, showing that resource price is indeed an important factor in researches of resource curse. With considering resource price, there is a U relation between resource dependence and economic growth in theory. However, in the past 20 years, provinces in China all lied in the left of the U shape curve, implying a simple negative relation between resource dependence and economic growth. We also analyze the transmission mechanisms with considering resource price, finding that investments of human capital and physical capital are the most important transmission mechanisms. Finally, related policy suggestions are proposed based on the conclusions.