要素市场扭曲、资本深化与产业结构调整——基于时变弹性生产函数的实证分析

Factor Market Distortion,Capital Deepening and Industrial Structure Adjustment:the Empirical Analysis Based on Production Functions with Time-Varying Elasticity

基于时变弹性生产函数估计了中国资本要素1978—2009年分产业的产出弹性,用各年各产业的资本收入份额减去其产出弹性表示资本要素的扭曲程度,并实证研究了资本要素扭曲和资本深化的关系,结论表明:第一产业基本是负向扭曲,第二产业是不很规则的U型曲线,第三产业则基本是倒U型曲线;各个产业的资本深化程度不同,用资本产出比衡量,从大到小排列顺序为三二一;资本要素市场扭曲会促进产业资本深化,在第三产业尤为明显。政策层面既要发展第三产业,又要警惕其资本过度深化,根本出路在于要素市场完善与产业结构调整的市场化。

Based on production functions with time-varying elasticity, this paper estimates the elasticities of China＇s capital factor from 1978 to 2009 in different industries, calculates the distortion of capital factor by means of each industry＇s capital payment proportion in national income minus the output elasticities of capital, and empirical research is used to analyses the relationship between the distortion of capital factor market and capital deepening. The conclusions show that the primary industry has a negative distortion curve, the secondary industry has an irregular U shape distortion curve, and the tertiary industry has an inverse U shape distortion curve. Each industry with different degrees of capital deepening has a range of tertiary secondary primary from high to low by means of capital-output ratio. The distortion will promote the industrial capital deepening, especially in the tertiary industry. We should draw the policy to develop the tertiary industry and avoid the excess capital deepening at the same time. The ultimate method is the reformation of factor market and the adjustment of industry based on market.