节点免疫力对事故网络风险传递行为的影响分析

Impact Analysis of Node Immunity on Risk Transfer Behavior in Accident Network

为摆脱物理模型的局限,从事故系统动态演化角度来揭示复杂系统一般性事故规律,构建了事故网络风险传递动力学模型,重点考虑节点免疫力、蔓延机制及内部随机噪声对传递过程的影响,并基于重构的事故网络,采用Arena软件对节点风险免疫力的影响特性进行了动态模拟,分析了本质致因层、过渡致因层和近邻致因层不同节点免疫力对事故网络风险传递行为的影响。结果表明:本质致因层和近邻致因层的节点免疫力是影响事故网络风险传递行为的敏感参数,在进行复杂系统事故预防时,应给予上述致因层较高的免疫力等级。

For the purpose of getting rid of the limitations of physical model, from the perspective the dy namic evolvement of the accident systems to reveal the general accident law of complex system, this paper reconstructs the dynamic model of the accident network risk transfer with focus on the influence of node risk immunity,spread mechanism and internal random noise on risk transfer process. Based on the recon structed accident network,the paper applies Arena software to simulating the impact of node immunity on the risk transfer behavior of the accident network,including influences of different node immunities in es sential causation layer,transition causation layer and adjacent causation layer on the behavior of risk trans fer. The results show that the node immunities in essential causation layer and adjacent causation layer are sensitive parameters to the risk transfer behavior and a higher risk immunity level should be given to those causation layers in the accident prevention of complex systems.