摘要
利用国家气候中心全球海气耦合模式CGCM_NCC的输出结果驱动区域气候模式RegCM_NCC对华北地区1991—2010年冬季气温和降水进行了数值回报试验,并采用国家气候中心的业务预报评分(P)等5个评估参数对模式的回报结果进行了评估分析。结果表明:RegCM_NCC回报的华北地区20年冬季气温的P评分多年平均值为70.4分,其中大部分年份平均气温的P评分在60分以上,80分以上的有11年,11年的预报相对于随机预报和气候预报有正技巧;20年冬季降水的P评分多年平均值为66.3分,13年冬季降水的P评分在60分以上,在80分以上的有5年,8年的预报相对于随机预报有正技巧,有11年的预报相对于气候预报有正技巧。冬季Nino3.4区海温距平为负和东大西洋-俄罗斯西部型遥相关指数为负,均有利于回报的华北冬季气温P评分提高。
The hindcast experiments of winter temperature and rainfall over North China from 1991 to 2010 are carried out by using a regional climate model （RegCM_NCC） nested a global atmosphere ocean coupled model （CGCM_NCC）. Five operational assessment parameters of the National Climate Center are used to assess the hindcast of winter temperature and rainfall of RegCM_NCC from 1991 to 2010. The results show the averaged P score of the winter temperature is 70.4, and the scores in most years are greater than 60, those in 11 year are greater than 80. Compared with the random forecast skill and forecast skill of climate ll-years hindcast display positive skill. The P score of winter precipitation in 13 years are greater than 60, and the average is 66.3. Compared with the random forecast skill, the 8-year hindcast displays positive skill. Compared with the forecast skill of climate, the ll-year hindcast displays also positive skill. Either negative sea surface temperature anomaly in Nino 3.4 region or negative EA/WR index in winter may enhance the P score of winter temperature.
出处
《气象科技》
2014年第6期1023-1027,共5页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金(41205061)
北京市气象局气象科技研发专项(2012BMBKYZX09)
北京市科技新星计划(2008B40)资助
关键词
华北
区域气候模式
冬季
回报
评估
North China, regional climate model, winter, hindcast, assessment
