棉花吐絮收获期连阴雨灾害风险区划

Disaster Risking Regionalization of Continuous Rainfall in Cotton Boll-Opening Period

为了进一步提高棉花生产中吐絮收获期连阴雨灾害的应对处置能力和水平,采用陕西关中棉区42个气象站1970—2010年的8月下旬至10月中旬逐日降水资料,同期的棉花灾情资料,经济资料和地理信息资料,基于GIS技术,针对影响陕西棉花吐絮成熟收获期的主要灾害——连阴雨进行风险区划研究,以期充分利用气候资源,避开不利气候条件,提高应对连阴雨灾害能力。结果表明:陕西关中棉花吐絮成熟收获期连阴雨灾害的高风险区和中等风险区在宝鸡市和西安南部沿秦岭北麓的周至、户县、长安和蓝田,不利于大面积种植棉花。关中东部渭南市、咸阳大部分区县,西安的临潼、阎良、高陵县,处于棉花种植的低风险区,能够保证棉花正常吐絮成熟收获。

In order to minimize the losses caused by continuous rainfall, the day-by-day precipitation data of 42 weather stations from late August to middle October of 1970 to 2012, the cotton damage data from continuous rainfall, and the economy data in the same period from the Guangzhong Cotton area of Shaanxi Province are used to conduct risking regionalization, with emphasis on the main disaster （continuous rainfall） in cotton boll-opening and mature periods in Guangzhong, based on the ARCGIS platform, so as to make full use of agricultural climatic resources and to avoid unfavorable climates conditions and improve the cap ability of responding to continuous rain disasters. The results show that the highest and medium risk areas of continuous rain in cotton boll-opening and mature periods in Guanzhong in Shaanxi include Baoji and the southern Xi＇An along the northern foot of Qinling Ranges （Zhouzhi, Huxian, Chang＇an and Lantian counties）, where are unfavorable for growing cotton in large scaIe. The low-risk regions include Weinan, most parts of Xian Yang, Lintong, Yanliang, and Gaoling counties, where climate conditions are suitable for cotton in boll-opening and mature stages.