基于ANP和云模型的水电项目群资源冲突风险评估

Risk assessment of resource conflict in hydropower engineering programmes based on both ANP and cloud model

为解决现有水电工程项目群风险评估方法在处理模糊性、随机性和指标相关性方面存在的不足,提高风险管理决策的科学性,首先界定水电项目群资源冲突风险的概念并分类,建立包括人员、设备、资金、主材、组织和环境6个一级指标及19个二级指标的风险评价指标体系。然后,采用网络层次分析法(ANP)确定每个指标的全局权重。最后,利用云重心评价法实现定性与定量评估的相互转换,并用云发生器描述水电项目群资源冲突风险状态。用所建立的风险评估方法对国内某水电项目群进行实例分析。结果显示,该水电项目群第一标段的资源冲突风险状态为偏轻,评估结果与实际情况基本相符。

To overcome the deficiency of the current risk-assessment methods in hydropower engineering programmes in terms of fuzziness, randomness, index relativity etc. and to optimize the decision-making in risk management, concepts of resource conflict risks in hydropower programmes were defined and classi- fied, establishing an index system of risk assessment consisting of 6 primary indexes （ personnel, equip- ment, capital, advocate material, organization and environment） and 19 secondary indexes. Then ANP was used to determine the global weight of each evaluation index. Finally transformation between qualita- tive and quantitative assessment was accomplished by using cloud barycenter evaluation, and risk condi- tions of resource conflict in hydropower programmes were described by using cloud generator. The estab- lished risk assessment method was then applied to the analysis of a hydropower engineering programme in China. The result shows that risk condition of resource conflict in the first bid section is slight, which is basically consistent with the actual situation.