美国阿拉斯加州M_S≥7地震的时空对称性与趋势判断

SPATIOTEMPORAL SYMMETRY AND TENDENCY JUDGMENT OF M_S≥7 STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN ALASKA,AMERICA

在时间对称性方面,利用可公度信息提取法和蝴蝶结构图对1970年来阿拉斯加州MS≥7强震进行分析,认为阿拉斯加州2015年发生强震的信号最强。通过对震中空间迁移分析,发现形成的三角形存在关于57°N纬线和150°W经线对称的规律;纬向上存在连续的2次震中位于57°N的北侧,另一次位于57°N南侧为主的迁移规律,经向上有连续的2次震中在150°W东侧,一次在150°W西侧为主的迁移规律。因此判断,未来强震可能向东北方向迁移。同时,由唯象到唯理,对可公度法的物理机理做了研究讨论,为今后国内地震趋势研究提供了参考。

Alaska is the most earthquake-prone state .The trend judgment of earthquake disasters has the theoretical and practical significance .In the time symmetry aspect , we analyzed the possible occurring time of the earthquake whose level is greater than the seventh grade using the method of commensurability information extraction and butterfly structure .We believe that there is a strong sig-nal that the earthquake whose level is greater than the seventh grade will occur in Alaska in 2015 .In the space symmetry aspect , from the earthquake migration , we find that the space distribution of earthquakes have obviously symmetric .We forecast the next strong earthquake will occur on the eastern side of 150 °W longitude and northern side of 57 °N latitude .At the same time , we studied the physical mechanism of the spatial symmetry .