祁连山-六盘山地震带M_S≥5.1地震时空对称性研究

Space-time Symmetry of M_S≥5.1 Earthquake Disasters in Qilian-Liupan Mountain Seismic Belts

根据1954年以来祁连山—六盘山地震带的地震数据,通过三元、四元、五元可公度计算、蝴蝶结构图分析和可公度结构系分析,对该地区地震灾害的时间对称性进行了趋势判断。理论计算结果表明：祁连山—六盘山地震带在2015年和2016年这两个年份强震信号较强,有可能发生较大震级地震。根据空间对称性和强震震中经、纬向迁移特征分析,判断出下一次地震发生地点大致在36°-39°N,95°-101°E区域。本研究可丰富重大灾害趋势判断研究案例。

Disaster trend evaluation is an important method for improving the accuracy of earthquake forecasting.On the basis of seismic data（MS≥5.1earthquakes）of Qilian and Liupan mountains obtained since 1954,the symmetry and tendency of earthquake disasters are analyzed in this study and are evaluated by using the methods of commensurability information extraction,butterfly structure diagram,and commensurability degree structure.In addition,the space-time symmetry and trends of earthquakes in the Qilian-Liupan mountain seismic belts are analyzed.The results show strong earthquake signals in 2015 and 2016and the possibility of greater magnitude earthquakes.Spatial symmetry is used to predict that the next earthquake may occur in the region of 36°-39°N,95°-101°E.This study can be used to enrich the study of the major disaster tendency evaluation.