磷矿市场走势分析

ANALYSIS ON PHOSPHATE MARKET BEHAVIOR

经过了50余年的持续增长,全球磷肥和磷矿市场自2012年下半年以来出现了下行趋势,属必然发生的理性回归,其根本原因为市场误导出现的产能过剩。磷块岩产量主要受制于磷肥消耗量,二者存在高度正相关性。目前条件下,全球磷肥和磷块岩年消耗量的极限分别约为38.9Mt和172.49Mt,未来一个时期,年消耗量走势分别在各自的极限值上下波动。国家有关部门应从宏观层面进行布局和指导,企业不应盲目"跟风",以避免出现"周期性的危机"。

Through more than 50 years sustained growth, there is a clear downturn in global phosphate fertilizer and phosphate market, which is inevitable rational return.The basic reason is excess capacity causd by market misleading. Phosphate rock output is mainly influenced by phosphate fertilizer consumption and there is Highly positive correlation between them. Under the present condition, the limitation of globle phosphate fertilizer and phosphate rock consumption is about 38.9Mt and 172.49Mt. In the future, annual consumption will wave up and down limitation. The related state departments should lay out and guide At a macro level.the companies should not follow like sheep to avoid the periodic crises.