我国快递业发展影响因素实证分析

Empirical Study on Influence Factors of Chinese Express Industry Development

文中在构建快递业发展影响因素评价指标体系的基础上,将快递业务收入作为参考序列,地区生产总值、互联网上网人数、快递营业网点数等作为比较序列,利用灰色关联分析方法定量分析影响我国快递业发展的主要因素。经过实证分析得到,经济水平决定快递业的发展水平。随着我国公路网络的完善,交通环境对快递业的发展不再是最主要的制约因素,而快递营业网点的覆盖情况才恰恰是直接影响快递业务供给的主要原因。

Based on the index system of the influencing factors of express industry development,this paper regards express business income as the system reference- series. At the same time,GRP,internet population,numbers of express outlets act as relevant factors series. To find out the most important factorsimpacting on the development of express industry in China,the grey relational analysis is applied. The empirical analysis proves that the development level in the economy determines the express industry level. With improvement of the road network,the traffic environment is not the main restraining factor anymore for the development of express industry,while the number of express outlets becomes the key factor which directly impacts express service supply.