南京城市旅游发展机制变化研究

Study on the Change of Development Mechanism of Urban Tourism in Nanjing

采用Mann-Kendall法对1996-2012年南京城市旅游发展阶段进行划分，运用灰色关联分析对南京城市旅游发展机制变化进行对比分析，研究表明：1996-2012年南京城市旅游发展分为1996-2003年的低增量阶段和2004-2012年高增量阶段。在1996-2003年期间影响南京城市旅游发展动力主要来自南京社会经济发展，而在2004-2012年期间南京城市旅游发展受到江苏和全国的因素影响。对比两个阶段，南京和全国农村居民收入水平，江苏和全国城镇居民收入水平，以及南京社会就业对推进南京城市旅游发展的作用提升，南京城市旅游发展动力由内力向外力转变，内在动力也由城市为主向乡村为主转变。

This paper divides the development stages by Mann-Kendall method and contrasts the change of development mechanism in the different stages of Nanjing by gray incidence analysis. The research shows that：in 1996-2012,the de-velopment of urban tourism in Nanjing can be divided into two stages,that is,low incremental stage in 1996-2003 and high incremental stage in 2004-2012. During the period of 1996-2003,the key factors influencing Nanjing urban tourism development are mainly the indexes related to Nanjing’s social and economic development,but during the period of 2004-2012,the development of urban tourism in Nanjing is affected by the tourism of Jiangsu and the whole nation. Contrasting these two stages,we can see that the effect on Nanjing’s urban tourism by the income level of rural residents of Nanjing and the whole country,the income level of urban residents of Jiangsu and the whole country,and the social employment of Nanjing is enhancing. Nanjing urban tourism development power transforms from internal forces to external forces, intrinsic motivation is also changed from the city to rural.