基于地理信息系统的全国1996—2012年出生缺陷空间分析

Spatial analysis of birth defects from 1996 to 2012 in China based on geographic information system

目的探讨全国出生缺陷发病的空间分布特征,为出生缺陷的有效防控提供科学依据。方法建立全国1996—2012年出生缺陷发病数据库,利用普通克里金插值,生成全国出生缺陷发病水平图,对发病率进行空间自相关分析、趋势面分析和空间回归分析。结果全局自相关显示:全国出生缺陷1996—2004年(I=0.226,P=0.000 6)和2005—2012年(I=0.283,P=0.000 03)呈现空间聚集性;局部自相关指出了出生缺陷发病的"正热点"区域分别为广东、广西和福建,"负热点"区域分别为黑龙江、吉林和辽宁;趋势面分析显示:出生缺陷发病由西向东先增高再降低,由北向南逐渐增加;空间回归分析显示:发病率随着纬度的递增而降低。结论全国出生缺陷发病具有明显的地域分布规律,应针对不同区域制定相应的预防控制措施。

Objective To explore the spatial distribution characteristics of birth defects in China and to provide scientific evidences for effective prevention and control of birth defects. Methods The database of incidence of birth defects from 1996 to 2012 was established. The ordinary Kriging interpolation was adopted to plot the map of incidence of birth defects in China. The spatial autocorrelation analysis, trend surface analysis, and spatial regression analysis were conducted for the incidence of birth defects. Results Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the spatial aggregation of birth defects in China existed during 1996 -2004 （I=0. 226, P= 0. 000 6） and 2005 - 2012 （I = 0. 283, P = 0. 000 03） . Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that Guangdong, Guangxi, and Fujian were ＂positive hotspot＂ regions and Heilongiiang, Jilin, and Liaoning were ＂negative hotspot＂ regions. Trend surface analysis showed that the incidence of birth defects increased first and then decreased from west to east and gradually increased from north to south. Spatial regression analysis showed that with the increase of latitude, the incidence of birth defects decreased. Conclusion The incidence of birth defects in China is of significantly geographical distribution. Different prevention and control measures should be established for different regions.