我国财政体育投入效能实证分析

Efficiency of China 's Financial Input in Sports

基于1991—2011年的时间序列数据,运用单整、协整、Granger(格兰杰)因果关系检验、误差修正模型(ECM)等计量方法,对我国财政体育投入与经济增长、竞技体育成绩、居民健康指数的长期均衡和短期动态关系进行实证分析。结果显示:财政体育投入与经济增长、竞技体育及群众体育发展水平存在长期协整关系,并且对居民健康水平、经济以及竞技体育的影响依次变弱;从长期看,财政体育投入与GDP的增长存在双向因果关系,而财政体育投入与竞技体育、群众体育发展水平存在单向因果关系;从短期看,财政体育投入对GDP的影响为反向作用,对竞技体育成绩及群众体育的发展均为正向作用。

Based on the time series data from 1991 to 2011, the study has adopted the methods of integration, co-integration, Error Correction Model （ECM）, Granger causality test to analyze the long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic relationship between the financial input in sports and the three aspects, i. e. , the economic growth, the sport performance, and the health index of residents. The results show that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between the financial input in sports and the other three aspects. In addition, there is an increasingly weak impact of the financial input on economics, the national health level and competitive sport in proper order. In the short term, the financial input in sports has a reverse impact on GDP; while it has a positive effect on competitive performance and the health index of residents.