采用信息转换及语言评判的负荷组合预测法

Method of Combine Load Forecast via Information Transformation and Language Evaluation

针对基于模糊评判的电力负荷组合预测法中考虑专家意见相对粗糙且繁琐的问题,提出一种采用信息转换及专家混合语言评判的电力负荷组合预测法,将模糊推理和语言决策引入负荷的组合预测中,通过选定定量及定性指标建立模型评价体系,采用模糊推理将单个预测模型的定量指标转换为语言评判条件下的定性量,并应用语言决策理论将该定性量同其他定性指标用于单个模型的评价中,得出预测模型的综合评价值,以此确定其权重、组合负荷预测并推荐结果。实际算例表明,该方法科学合理具有很好的实用价值。

In order to tackle the problem that the traditional power load combined forecasting method based on fuzzy evaluation thoughts, such as considering experts＂ advices is relatively rough and cumbersome, a method is proposed to forecast the power load by combined forecasting based on the transformation of information and the evaluation of ex- perts/ hybrid language. The fuzzy reasoning and linguistic decision are made into the combination forecasting, by using fuzzy reasoning to transform the quantitative error index of the single forecasting model for qualitative quantity under the condition of language evaluation and then linguistic theory is utilized to obtain the comprehensive evaluation value of a single model with other index. Depending on the value, it combing the forecasted result. The last example indicates that this method is scientific and reasonable in practice.