摘要
提出一种估算未来实际电网中输电线路容量利用率的方法。该文考虑未来负荷增长与变化、发电机与输电设备停运以及发电机机组经济分配等多种因素,采用蒙特卡罗仿真算法求出线路未来的潮流概率分布,进而获得利用率指标。计算结果能够反映未来电网容量利用水平,参与电网的可靠性评估以及计算项目的投资回收周期,更好地指导未来电网的规划与设计。以国内某实际输电系统为例,阐述了建模过程,验证所提方法的可行性以及实际的应用价值。
The paper focuses on a way of estimating the transmission line utilization rate for the future actual power grid. A model based on Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is proposed to calculate the power flow probabihty distribution of lines, thereby estimating the utilization rate. In this algorithm, the load growth and probabilistic distribution, outage of generator and transmission equipment and the economic dispatch of generation units are considered. As an index re- flecting utilization level of capacity of transmission lines, the utilization rate can be used to assess the rehability of power grid and calculate payback period of project, which helps planners planning and designing preferably. A domes- tic practical transmission system is utilized to explain the modeling process and the results verify its feasibility and practical application values.
出处
《电力系统及其自动化学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第2期39-43,56,共6页
Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51277128)
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2009CB2197018)
四川省电力公司电网规划线路利用率理论研究项目
关键词
线路利用率
蒙特卡罗模拟
输电规划
投资回收期
transmission line utilization rate（TLUR）
Monte Carlo simulation
transmission planning
payback period
