马铃薯旱灾保险的理赔指数及保险费率研究——以陇东黄土高原区为例

Claim Index of Potato Drought Damage Insurance and Premium Rates —A Case Study Based on the Loess Plateau Area of Eastern Gansu

在陇东黄土高原干旱半干旱区选取了庆城县、环县和华池县三个典型县份,在半干旱半湿润区选取了西峰区、崇信县和庄浪县三个典型县区。依据这些县区1981-2013年期间的历年降水量数据和马铃薯生产的实际单产数据,应用直线滑动平均法建立趋势拟合方程,模拟出1981-2013年这些县区马铃薯生产的趋势单产产量,设计出马铃薯生产在不同降水量指数下的理赔指数。并根据这些县区不同降水量指数发生的频率和与之对应的灾损率,厘定出两种气候类型区马铃薯旱灾气象指数保险的纯保险费率,量化陇东黄土高原区马铃薯保险的个人投保费率和政府补贴标准。鉴于当前该区实行的政策性农业保险保障水平、农户投保率低等一系列问题,提出了调整、完善政策性农业保险的思路和对策建议。

Three counties, Qingcheng, Huan, and Huachi, are selected from the arid and semi-arid regions of Eastern Gansu and another three, Xifeng, Chongxin, and Zhuanglang, are chosen from the semi- arid and semi-humid areas. Based on these counties＇ annual precipitations in 1981-2013 and the actual per unit yield of potatoes, trend regression equation is formulated by means of linear sliding average method. The trend of per unit yield of potatoes in 1981-2013 in these counties is simulated. Thereupon the claim index of potato yields under different precipitations is designed. Based on the frequency of different precipitation indices in these counties and the corresponding loss rates, net premium rates of potato drought damage insurance in two different climatic types are figured out, and personal premium rates and government subsidy standards are quantized in terms of potato drought damage insurance in loess plateau areas of eastern Gansu. In view of the current premium level of policy-oriented agricultural insurance and the low insurance rate among the local farmers, this paper comes up with suggestions regarding the adjustment of policy-oriented agricultural insurance.