地方政府横向竞争与中央治理政策对土地财政不同发展阶段影响研究——基于区域集群、主成分分析结果的动态面板分析

Study on Influences of Local Government Competition and Central Government Policy on Different Development Stages of Land Finance——Using Dynamic Panel Data Based on Results of Regional Clusters and Principal Component Analysis

本文利用2002年至2011年全国三十一省(自治区、直辖市)土地出让收入数据,使用聚类分析法、主成分分析法以及系统GMM分析方法,研究分税制背景下地方政府间横向竞争以及中央政府土地财政治理政策对不同区域集群的土地财政的影响政策评价,研究发现,从整体上将我国不同区域的土地财政发展状况分为四个阶段。对于多数土地财政发展阶段而言,地方政府横向竞争会进一步加大土地财政规模,而中央治理政策能够有效地起到控制土地财政继续发展的作用,而分税制因素并不能完全解释土地财政迅猛发展的现象。因此,提出改革政绩考核体制、贯彻土地财政治理政策、深化分税制改革、合理规划土地利用方式等政策建议。

This paper uses the data of China＇s thirty-one provinces＇（ autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government） land assignment income from year 2002 to year 2011 to study the influences of local government competi- tion and central government policy on different development stages of land finance and make some policy evaluations with the help of cluster, principal component and SYS-GMM analysis methods. Through the study we find that different regions in Chi- na can be roughly classified into four stages according to land financial development situations, for the majority of land finance development stages, local government competition will further expand the scale of land finance, while the central government policy will effectively control the continuous development of land finance, but the tax distribution system can not fully explain the rapid development of land finance. Hence, we make recommendations to reform achievement evaluation system, implement the land finance governance policy, deepen the reform of tax distribution system and rationally plan the use of land.