基于失业率与通货膨胀率的我国最优货币政策规则选择

The optimal monetary policy rule based on the unemployment rate and the inflation rate

参考双粘性小型宏观经济模型刻画了通货膨胀率与失业率之间的动态关系,在此基础上给出了中国的最优货币政策规则形式。研究得出:(1)粘性价格系数为0.4936,每季度50.64%的企业会按照最优的方式来调整价格,粘性工资系数为0.5064,工资调整较慢,假定劳动力市场存在摩擦比较合理;(2)同时将通货膨胀预期及失业率作为阈值的利率规则具有更小的福利损失;(3)在两变量都处于合理区间时,通过损失失业率来换取通货膨胀的稳定可以使经济获得更大的福利。(4)降低工资粘性及适度升高价格粘性有利于经济的稳定。

In this paper,we build a small macroeconomic model with microeconomic foundation and dual sticky property to characterize the relationship between inflation rate and unemployment rate and gives the optimal monetary policy rules under the policy objectives.The results show that：（1 ）The parameter of price sticky is 0.4936,there are 50.64% of companies which will follow the best way to adjust price in every quarter,and t,so assumes the existence of labor market friction reasonable;（2）Using inflation and unemployment rate as the threshold of the Interest rate has a smaller welfare loss;（3）When two variables are in a reasonable range,through loss the unemployment rate to exchange the stable of the inflation rate can get greater social welfare;（4）Lower wage sticky and moderately improve price sticky benefit the stable of economy.The innovations of this paper are that：We join the character of the labor market frictions in the New Keynesian model.