基于地统计分析的长三角城市群产业密度演变研究——以邮电行业为例

Research of Yangtze River Delta urban group industry density evolution based on statistic analysis——take post and telecommunications industry as example

以长三角城市群各城市邮电业的产业密度为研究对象,综合运用空间探索性数据分析、泛克里格空间插值、空间变异函数等多种分析方法,对长三角城市群邮电业的产业密度时空分异特征及动力机制进行研究。结果表明:近十年来,长三角城市群邮电业的产业密度呈现出一定程度的正空间自相关关系,在空间上主要表现出自西向东逐渐增大,由北向南先增大后减小的趋势;邮电业的产业密度随距离逐渐衰减,且衰减速度呈递增趋势。产业密度扩散核心主要集中在城市群中心城市及其邻近腹地,城市群中心的产业密度大小同时又决定了产业密度空间扩散的速度及范围。尽管长三角城市群各城市产业密度逐渐增大,但不同区域间仍有较大差异,主要受生产要素流动、生态环境以及政策制度等因素的影响。

By using the density of Post and Telecom- munications of the Yangtze River Delta city group in- dustrial cities as the study objects, and integrating use of spatial exploratory data analysis, Kriging spa- tial interpolation, variogram methods to study the density of the Yangtze River Delta industrial city of Post and Telecommunications industry group character- istics and dynamic mechanism of evolution. The results show that： Over the past decade, the Post and Telecom- munications industry density of the Yangtze River Delta city group presents a certain degree of positive spatial autocorrelation, mainly in space increases from west to east, north to south, first increases and then decreases . The industry density of Post and Telecommunications of the Yangtze River Delta city group gradually decays with distance, and the decay rate showed an increasing trend. Industries are mainly concentrated in the core density diffusion regional center and its surrounding hinterland, the density of the size of the regional industrial centers, while in turn determines the speed and scope of industrial density spatial diffusion. Although industrial cities in Yangtze River Delta city group density increases, but there are still large differences between different regions, which mainly affected by the flow of factors of production factors, environmental and policy system.