GVC中贸易超调波动的传导机制研究——基于我国经验的观察视角

Research on Transmission Mechanism of Trade Excessive Fluctuation in GVC:Based on China's Empirical Observation

全球金融危机后国际贸易出现了快速萎缩、快速复苏的剧烈波动,已成为世界经济波动的突出现象。本文从全球价值链理论出发,对贸易波动在全球扩散的传导机制及效应进行分析,发现存在订单调整机制、存货调整机制、贸易叠加机制以及合成的“甩鞭”效应。通过选取2005~2013年我国流通企业消费品订单指数和存货指数的月度数据,建立VAR和脉冲响应模型,发现在全球价值链分工背景下,存货调整机制和订单调整机制的共同作用对我国贸易剧烈波动产生了长期显著的影响,且其脉冲结果与现实吻合。因此,建立完善有效的国际贸易价值链传导机制,对世界各国尤其是发展中国家实现互惠互利、共同发展十分必要。

International trade has been the global financial crisis, which has been rapidly shrinking and recovering after a prominent phenomenon in the world economic fluctuations. Based on the global value chain theory, the paper focuses on the mechanism that leads the trade volatility to proliferate and its effects on the world, finding that there are order and inventory adjustment mechanisms, trade superposition mechanism and the synthetic ＂Whip/ash＂ effect. By selecting the 2005-2013 monthly data, establishing the VAR mode/ and the impulse re- sponse model, the paper finds that the inventory and order adjustment mecha- nisms together have a significant impact on China＇s trade excessive fluctuation and the result of the impulse response is in accordance with the reality. Accord- ing to the result, building and completing an efficient global trade value chain transmission mechanism is quite essential to the mutual benefit and co-develop- ment of the wor/d, especially the developing countries.