2014年国内外油气行业发展概述及2015年展望

Overview of international oil and gas industry developments in 2014 and outlook for 2015

2014年,世界经济复苏疲弱;能源消费增速放缓;石油供需持续宽松,市场失衡,油价暴跌;天然气供需初现宽松,LNG现货价格大幅下跌;油气产储量双双增长;炼化能力继续增长;全球主要油品供需宽松;乌克兰事件极大地影响了全球地缘政治和能源市场格局;国际石油公司业绩明显下滑,加快战略调整。中国经济发展进入新常态,石油消费延续低速增长态势;成品油供需总体宽松;天然气消费增速大幅放缓;油气储量保持快速增长,产量油稳气增;炼油和乙烯产能仍保持快速增长;海外权益油气产量继续快速增长;三大石油公司经营业绩下滑,加快战略调整。展望2015年,全球经济复苏加速,但世界石油市场供需宽松态势难以改变,国际油价低位回稳;全球天然气供需更趋宽松,价格下行;炼油和乙烯产能继续增长,炼油能力过剩加剧。中国经济结构持续调整,石油需求量继续增长,天然气维持较快增长,炼油能力增速将明显放慢,市场化进程进一步加快。

In 2014 global economic recovery was weak, growth in energy consumption was slow, oil demand kept easing amid ample supply creating market imbalance, LNG spot prices fell sharply, both output and reserves of oil and gas increased, refining capacity continued to grow, and demand eased relative to supply of the world's main petroleum products. The Ukraine events greatly impacted global geopolitics and energy markets; marked decline in international oil companies' performance has accelerated their strategic adjustment. China's economic development has entered a new normal, with continued lowspeed growth in oil consumption and easing demand relative to the supply of petroleum products, sharp deceleration in natural gas consumption, continued rapid growth in oil and gas reserves, steady oil and increasing gas production, refining and ethylene capacity still capable of rapid growth, equity interest in production abroad continuing to grow rapidly, and declining operating performance by the three Chinese majors, accelerating their strategic adjustment. In 2015 the global economic recovery should accelerate, but it nevertheless won't likely reverse stubborn global oil market supply availability relative to demand, with stable low international oil prices while world natural gas demand relative to supply weakens and natural gas prices trend lower, and oil refining capacity and ethylene production growing and exacerbating an excess in refining capacity. China will need to continue restructuring its economy as oil demand continues to grow and gas consumption growth is maintained, with significantly slower refining capacity growth, and to further quicken the domestic marketization process.