“十三五”期间全球油气行业发展十大趋势

10 trends in the oil and gas industry during the 13th Five-year Plan period

2014年,国际油价大幅下挫,世界油气行业进入不景气周期,"四低"(低价格、低回报、低投资和低成本)将成为新时期油气行业的新特点。未来5年,全球油气供需将保持宽松,油气价格有望维持相对低位;油气行业投资回报率下降,石油公司进入战略调整期,重组整合可能增加;资源国油气政策将更加开放,国际油气合作空间加大,但主导因素将从资源转向技术与市场;亚洲作为重要买家在世界油气市场的影响将显著提升,反映亚洲市场的油气基准价格有望逐步形成;乌克兰问题将长期影响全球地缘政治及能源贸易格局,中美谋求建立新的竞合关系;各国能源政策将更加强调低碳、清洁,加快天然气发展仍是现实选择;油气作为主导能源地位仍将延续,新能源和可再生能源发展可能放缓。中国油气市场进入转折期,供需宽松可能常态化;中国将加速油气市场化改革,并推进与周边国家能源合作升级。

With 2014's sharp drop in oil prices, the global energy industry has entered the recessionary period of a cycle, characterized by four 'lows': low price, low profit, low investment and low cost. Supply abundance relative to weak demand for oil and gas will persist for the next 5 years, with oil and gas prices expected to remain relatively low, the energy industry's ROI will decline, oil and gas companies are entering a period of strategic adjustment, recombination and integration may be the trend, oil and gas resource policy in the country will be more open, room for international cooperation will increase, but the primary factor will switch from being resources to being technology and markets. Asia's importance as a buyer force in the global oil and gas market will significantly increaseand be reflected in the gradual formation of an Asian market benchmark price. The Ukraine crisis will have a long-term impact on global geopolitics and energy trading patterns, China and the US may seek a new competitive and cooperative relationship. Major countries' energy policy will increase emphasis on clean and low carbon emissions, with faster gas development still a realistic choice. Oil and gas will continue to be the dominant energy resource. New energy and renewable energy resource development is likely to slow. China's oil and gas market is entering a transition period, where soft demand and abundant supply may be the new normal. China will accelerate oil and gas market reform while promoting greater energy cooperation with neighboring countries.