基于灰色预测模型的敦煌旅游地生命周期分析与调控

Analysis and Regulation Based on Grey Model of Dunhuang Tourism Destination Life Cycle

引用Butler旅游地生命周期模型,定性阐述了热点旅游城市敦煌旅游地具体的生命周期特点与规律,认为敦煌作为旅游地正处于其生命周期的快速发展阶段。近几年"敦煌热"的兴起,导致该旅游地的旅游人数开始产生"井喷式"增长迹象。基于此,通过构建敦煌旅游人数的GM(1,1)模型,对未来敦煌市旅游人数进行客观预测,为实现敦煌旅游地可持续发展提供科学依据和调控方法。

With the reference of Butler tourist destination lifecyele model, this paper qualitatively analyzed the hot tourist city of Dunhuang tour- ism destination life cycle stages and characteristics, the authors thought that the rapid development of Dunhuang was in its life cycle stage, in recent years the rising of “hot” Dunhuang, the number of tourist destinations began to have a “blowout” growth effect. Based on this, this paper through the construction of a number of Dunhuang tourism GM （ 1,1 ） model, the objective projections for tourist numbers of Dunhuang city, the next few years, for the realization of the Dunhuang control method and scientific basis for sustainable development of the tourism destination were put up.