基于风险分担的绿色建筑投资风险评估模型研究

Research on Evaluation Model of Green Building Investment Risk Based on Risk Sharing

绿色建筑在我国处于起步阶段,其面临着完工风险、运营风险、安全风险、技术风险等投资风险,由于绿色建筑项目工程复杂、资金巨大,项目面临的投资风险按照一定比例由众多项目参与方分担,所以风险分担是绿色建筑项目风险管理的起点。本文从风险分担入手,利用多目标规划方法找到最佳风险分担方案,并同项目实际风险分担方案比较,获得绿色建筑建设项目风险评价指标体系。运用层次分析法确定各指标权重,利用综合评价法得到绿色建筑建设项目投资风险评估值,最终确定该项目的风险水平及各风险的控制对策。

Green building in China is still at the initial stage and it faces the completion risk, operating risk, security risk, technology risk, investment risk.Due to the complexity of green building projects, the needs of huge funds and many project participants share the investment risk to the project according to certain proportion, so the risk sharing is the starting point of the green building project risk management. This paper starts from risk sharing, uses multi-objective programming method to find the optimal risk sharing scheme, and compares with the actual project risk sharing scheme, and gets the risk assessment index system of green building construction project. Then it uses the AHP to determine the weight of each index and get the value of investment risk evaluation of green building construction project by using the comprehensive evaluation method, and finally determines the risk level of the project.