新常态下人力资本与产业转型升级的契合性研究

The Fitness Study between Human Capital And Industries' Transformation-Upgrading under The New Normal

发达国家城市曾经历的产业结构转型升级,受益于后工业化促成的人力资本在产业间的优势重构,使其在市场机制作用下陆续进入符合比较优势的产业结构演进路径。而当中国来到转型升级窗口伊始,国内城市显然并不完全具备上述有利条件,这就要求对当下的人力资本产业分布状况应有准确判断。本文以分位数回归和反事实分解为方法,基于CHIP(2007)数据,分别从人力资本的构成指标和整体质量出发展开研究,结果显示:人力资本构成指标,在不同地区产业间正呈现明显的结构化错位;人力资本整体质量,在不同地区产业间更是迥然分化。东部城市,服务业中的人力资本整体质量已然全面超越制造业,而中西部城市,服务业人力资本整体质量仍然明显落后于后者。

The transformation and upgrading of industrial structure happened in developed country cities, were benefited from the restructure of human capital＇ comparative advantages in different industries which were promoted by post- industrialization. In such a situation, the cities entered an evolution path of industrial slructure in succession, where they could have a comparative advantage. However, when China is coming to the beginning of transformation and upgrading, the domestic cities obviously are not completely satisfied these advantageous conditions, that means, we should have an accurate judgment on the present status of human capital＇ industrial distribution. On the one hand taking quantile regression and counterfactual decomposition as methods, on the other hand based on the data of CHIP（2007）, the research which is based on human capital＇ formative indicators and overall quality for separately shows, that the human capital＇ formative indicators are showing a clearly structural dislocation between industries of different regions, and the overall quality of which even is qualitative differentiation： in the eastern cities, the overall quality of human capital in the service industry has comprehensively exceed the manufacturing industry, but in the mid-western cities, the former is still noticeably behind the latter.