陕西省能源消费碳排放及影响因素分析

Analysis on Energy Consumption Carbon Emission and Influencing Factors in Shaanxi Province

研究陕西省能源消费碳排放对陕西省减少碳排放、发展低碳经济有重要意义。本文基于Kaya恒等扩展式和LMDI因素分解模型,应用LMDI分解方法对能源消费碳排放进行因素分解。定量分析陕西省2000～2011年人口、人均GDP、能源消费结构、能源消费强度、产业结构等5方面的因素对能源消费碳排放的贡献大小。结果表明：人均GDP增长是陕西省碳排放量增加最大的因素,其次是能源消费强度;人口效应和能源消费结构对碳排放量的增加有较微弱的拉动作用;产业结构效应对陕西省碳排放量增加产生负作用;产业结构和能源消费结构需要进一步调整与优化以抑制碳排放量增长。

The research of energy consumption carbon emission has important significance to reducing carbon emissions and developing the low- carbon economy in Shaanxi Province. Based on the Kaya identity extended equation and LMDI factorization model,the factors influencing energy consumption carbon emission were decomposed using LMDI method. The contribution of population,per capita GDP,energy consumption structure,energy consumption intensity and industrial structure to energy consumption carbon emission were quantitatively analyzed in Shaanxi from 2000 to 2011. The results showed that the growth of GDP per head was the most important factor influencing Shaanxi carbon emissions increase,and the second one was energy consumption intensity; population and energy consumption structure had fain pulling effects on the increase of carbon emissions,while the industrial structure had negative effect. The industrial structure and energy consumption structure should be regulated and optimized to curb the increase of carbon emissions.