济宁地区1970～2012年热量资源变化特征及其对作物生长的影响

Change Feature of Heat Resources from 1970 to 2012 in Jining Area and Its Impacts on Crop Growth

利用济宁地区11个县站1970～2012年逐日气象观测资料,运用最小二乘法进行线性倾向估计,分析济宁地区主要热量资源的时间、空间变化趋势及其对作物生长的影响。结果表明：济宁近43年作物生长季年平均气温整体呈阶段性上升趋势,增温速率为0.30℃/10a;≥0℃活动积温为5 222.1℃·d,增加速率为86.7℃·d/10a;≥10℃的积温为4 777.2℃·d,增温速率为77.4℃·d/10a;〈0℃负积温绝对值为99.1℃·d,增温速率为14.1℃·d/10a。≥0℃、≥10℃持续的日数增加4.5天和3.2天,稳定通过≥0℃、≥10℃初日提前了3天和2天,≥0℃、≥10℃的终日分别晚2天和1天。作物生长季内有效积温的增加,使冬小麦—夏玉米的生产系统受到显著影响,其中冬前生长积温增加导致传统播期的冬小麦冬前旺长,因此冬小麦须推迟播期以适应气候变暖带来的不利影响;对于夏玉米来说,由于热量的增加和冬小麦播期的推后,改变了原有套种模式,可以推迟至小麦收获后进行夏直播。

According to the daily meteorological data from 1970 to 2012 of 11 county stations in Jining area,the time and space variation tendency of heat resources and its impacts on crop growth were studied using least square method to calculate linear tendency estimation. The results indicated that the annual average temperature during crop growth season showed the trend of gradual rise on the whole in recent 43 years in Jining area,and the average rate of calescence was 0. 30℃ /10 a. The annual active accumulated temperature of ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ were 5 222. 1℃·d and 4 777. 2℃·d with the warming rate of 86. 7℃·d /10 a and77. 4℃·d /10 a. The absolute value of negative accumulated temperature of 0℃ was 99. 1℃·d with the warming rate of 14. 1℃·d /10 a. The consecutive days of ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ increased by 4. 5 and 3. 2 days,the initial date which stably through ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ was 3 and 2 days earlier,and the date terminating ≥0℃and ≥10℃ was 2 and 1 days later respectively. The increase of effective accumulated temperature in crop growth season significantly affected the production system of winter wheat and summer corn. Among which,the increase of accumulated temperature before winter could result in vigorous growth before winter of winter wheatsowing on traditional date,thus the sowing date should be delayed to adapt to the adverse effects of climate warming. Due to the increase of heat and delay of winter wheat sowing date,which changed the traditional interplanting mode,the summer corn could be delayed to seed after wheat harvest.