天水春夏季连阴雨天气对蜜桃生产影响的评估技术研究

Influence Evaluation of Continuous Rain to Peach Production in Spring and Summer in Tianshui

为有效防御春夏季连阴雨灾害对天水蜜桃生产影响,采用统计学方法和风险原理提取了主要致灾因子并构建了气象灾害风险评估模型。主要致灾因子以5月上旬蜜桃花后坐果期和7月下旬至8月上旬蜜桃果实速生膨大至成熟期影响最为明显,并以春末5月上旬蜜桃花后坐果期连阴雨天气灾害对蜜桃产量影响最大,贡献率83%;2个时段连阴雨天气灾害强度均以轻灾最多。综合评估表明,影响天水市蜜桃生产的连阴雨灾害综合评估除大灾、轻灾评估准确率略低为75%和83%外,中灾和重灾评估准确率均达100%,灾害评估效果比较理想,对农业防灾减灾有一定的指导意义。

To effectively determine the effect of continuous rain in spring and summer on the production of peach in Tianshui, statistical method and risk principle were used to extract the main disaster factors and even construct the model of meteorological disaster risk assessment. The main disaster factors affected the production significantly when peach began fruit- setting in early May and peach began fast growing and inflating to mature from late July to early August. The continuous rain occurred in early May was the worst factor and the contribution rate was up to 83%. Among these two periods, the mild disaster occurred most. The results showed that mild and major disaster evaluation accuracy were 75% and 83%, and the evaluation accuracy of moderate and severe disaster were up to 100%. The disaster evaluation result was ideal and had reference value in agricultural disaster prevention and reduction.