基于气候适宜指数的湖南早稻产量动态预报

Dynamic Forecasting for Early Rice Yield Based on Climatic Suitability Index in Hunan

早稻生长发育和产量形成过程与气象条件密切相关,开展早稻产量动态预报对湖南农业生产和粮食安全具有重要意义。从湖南早稻生长发育的上限温度、最适温度、下限温度、需水量、需光特性等生物学特性出发,建立湖南早稻气候适宜度模型,采用权重系数的方法构建湖南早稻气候适宜指数。选取15个代表站点,统计分析1961—2009年不同时段湖南早稻气候适宜指数与产量丰歉值的关系,建立了基于气候适宜指数的湖南早稻产量动态预报模型,并从模型预测值与实测值增减趋势一致的样本百分率、预报准确率等方面进行回代检验。利用2010—2012年资料进行外推检验。检验结果表明,建立的预报时间为4月30日、5月20日和6月20日的基于气候适宜指数的湖南早稻产量预报模型预报值与实测值增减趋势一致的样本百分率为64%~73%,预报准确率平均为94.7%~96.3%。研究结果表明,建立的基于气候适宜指数的早稻产量动态预报模型,能够满足湖南早稻产量预报业务服务的需要。

Early rice growth and yield formation are closely related to meteorological conditions. It is of greatsignificance for agricultural production and food security by unfolding early rice yield dynamic forecast inHunan. The climatic suitability model was established based on the maximum temperature, the optimumtemperature, the minimum temperature, water demand and optical characteristics of early rice in Hunan, andbuilt by using the method of different weighted integration in Hunan. The author selected 15 representativestations, the climatic suitability index of the early rice of different times from 1961 to 2009 were calculated.The relationship between the climatic suitability index in different times and the value of yields for bumper orpoor harvest of the early rice was analyzed. The dynamic forecasting model of early rice yield based on climaticsuitability index was established. There were fitted testing in the sample percentage of consistency of changetendency between the forecasting yields and the observations and the forecasting accuracy. Extrapolated testingwas conducted by using the data from 2010 to 2012. The testing results showed that the value of the forecastingmodel for early rice yield based on climatic suitability index on April 30 and May 20 and June 20 was 64%-73% in the sample percentage of consistency of change tendency between the forecasting yields and theobservations, and the value forecasting accuracy was 94.7%- 96.3%. The research results showed that thedynamic forecasting model for early rice yield based on climatic suitability index was able to meet the needs ofthe early rice yield forecasting services in Hunan.