近30年重庆梁平最高、最低气温的变化特征分析

Analysis of the Variation Characteristics of Chongqing Liangping Maximum and Minimum Temperature in the Past 30 Years

利用重庆梁平地面气象资料日值数据集(1981—2010年),综合采用线性回归、MK突变等方法重点分析平均最高最低气温的变化分布特征。结果显示:梁平年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温与年平均气温呈现线性增加的趋势,且四季年平均最高气温均呈现不同程度的增温趋势;平均最低气温增暖趋势为:夏季>春季>秋季>冬季;1998年为年平均最高气温增暖的突变起始年,四季的平均最高气温突变时间基本一致,最近一次突变是出现在20世纪末21世纪初;年平均气温的显著增高对同期平均最高最低气温的正影响最大。基于此,为梁平农业气候资源开发和利用提供理论依据和参考。

This paper analyzes the distribution features of changes of the mean maximum and minimum airtemperatures with such methods as linear regression and MK mutation, etc., based on data sets of daily valuesin ground meteorological data of Liangping, Chongqing（1981-2010）. The results show that the annual meanmaximum air temperature, annual mean minimum air temperature and annual mean air temperature inLiangping present a trend of linear increase, and all annual mean maximum air temperatures in four seasonsshow a tendency of increase at different degrees; the increasing tendency of the mean minimum air temperatureis： summerspringautumnwinter. 1998 is the initial year of mutation for the annual mean maximum airtemperature increase, the mutation time of the mean maximum air temperature in four seasons is basicallyconsistent, and the latest mutation appeared at the end of the 20 th century and the beginning of the 21 stcentury. Remarkable increase of the annual mean air temperature has the biggest positive influence on themean maximum and minimum air temperatures in the corresponding period. Based on this, the paper providestheoretical basis and reference for development and utilization of agroclimatic resources in Liangping.