基于系统动力学的城市物流与经济协调发展的仿真研究——以兰州市为例

The Simulation Research on the Urban Logistics Systems and Economy Coordinated Development Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Lanzhou

以复杂系统论和系统动力学为指导,结合兰州市2009年-2013年经济和物流的相关数据,利用SD模型对城市物流与经济发展问题进行仿真模拟,并运用Vensim PLE软件进行检验分析。以经济发展水平为主线,改变城市物流供给、需求能力和经济阻碍因子,得出兰州市经济的发展刺激物流需求的增长,但供给能力不足会造成经济的阻碍。因此,物流供需平衡不仅促进经济的协调发展,同时为物流系统的发展提出了有效途径和思路。

Guided by the complex system theory and system dynamics,making a simulation of urban logistics and economy development with SD.On the basis of the economy and logistics relative date of Lanzhou city from 2009 to 2013,this paper applies Vensim PLE to make a simulate.The paper asserts that economy development as the main line.It is concluded that the economic development of Lanzhou city stimulus the growth of the logistics demend,according to change the city logistics supply,demend and economic hinder factor.but the insufficient supply will cause economic obstacles.Therefore,not only is the balance of logistics supply and demend promote the coordinated development of economy,but also put forward effective ways and ideas.